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Preliminary reports indicate
that between 22 and 31 people were killed in eastern Bangladesh by a tornado
Sunday evening(May 4). Village Noabadi near the Indian border was
hardest hit. Many of the injured lost hands or feet
from flying debris. This area
was outlooked with a HIGH
risk of severe
storms in the day 5 convective
outlook. A day 5 outlook was given since
I was headed out of town on
the April 30. Unfortunately I downgraded to
a MODERATE risk in the day 1
outlook on May 3 since storm initiation
was in question. More information
will be posted as details are available.
The forecast discussion from
April 30 is as follows:
Day 3-6 discussion updated 4-30-03 0445 UTC
An upper level ridge over the northern part of the Tibetan plateau
will gradually shift east over the next 72 hours. A
deep upper level trough will progress eastward from the middle east over
the next 72 hours. By May 2, this trough will be centered over far northwest
India and Pakistan. Strong westerly flow at the base of this trough
will tend to be suppresed just south of the Tibetan Plateau, leading to
an increase in the mid-upper level wind fields immediately south of the
Himalayas. The 500mb winds may increase to 45-60kts as early as May 3.
If everything pans out, tornadic storms will be likely from May 2 to May
5. Thus I will go ahead and issue a moderate
risk for much of central and northern Bangladesh and adjacent Assam and
West Bengal, India for May 2-4, and a high risk of severe storms for May
4 and May 5 for much of the Bengal region. I may not be able to update
these forecasts for a few days since I will be away from computing resources.
Days 3-4 outlook May 2
and May 3 moderate risk
of severe storms
Days 5-6 outlook May 4 and May
5 high
risk of severe storms
Click here
for a surface chart for 06 UTC May 4, here
for the 12 UTC 500mb chart and here
for an approximate sounding
for Agartala, India. Neither Agartala nor
Dhaka made balloon launches at 00 and 12 UTC which is disappointing.
The 12 UTC 200mb reanalysis can be found here.
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