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    Forecasts will normally be updated between 3 UTC and 6 UTC(0900-1200 BST) since surface based convective initiation
    is generally between 9 and 11 UTC. These are updated as needed through initiation time.  In particularly active periods
    I may update several times per day. If violent tornadoes are expected, I will try to issue tornado watch boxes before events
    unfold--time permitting.

                                                          2006 Convective Outlooks
 

    Mar 15   2006    Day 1      no risk of high-end severe storms
    Mar 16   2006    Day 2      no risk of high-end severe storms
    Mar 17   2006    Day 3      no risk of high-end severe storms

    The tornado peak is April 10-14. There is a sharp decline in  violent tornadoes after April 19. There have been a few
    notable tornadoes in May. However, 2 of the most violent tornadoes on record occurred outside of the peak period
    on April 26 and May 13, with 1300 and 700 fatalities respectively. The April 26th tornado path was 8 miles long but
    up to a mile wide. Interestingly, the violent tornado last month that killed 65 people was very early. Very few violent
    tornadoes have occurred so early in the spring. The exceptions were March 19, 1961 when over 200 people were
    killed by a single tornado and March 13, 1953 when over 20 were killed. Only 2 violent  tornadoes have occurred
    after May 13.

    Several factors lead to a very short but active severe weather season across Bengal.

        1. India heats up and dries out in late March or early April.
        2. Surface flow from the Bay of Bengal increases by late March and early April. This can be viewed as
            a monsoon flow of sorts.
        3. Westerly mid-level flow around the Tibetan Plateau advects the Indian mixed layer over the Bengal
            moist tongue. This leads to the elevated mixed layer. Note that parts of the Indian desert are
            "elevated"(1-3000ft) compared to Bangladesh which is near sea lavel.
        4. The southern branch of the polar jet often retreats north of the Tibetan Plateau by May, leaving light mid to
            high level flow across the Bengal region.

                       Severe storms or tornado hits Bangladesh killing over 20

    Over 20 people have been killed in a tornado or severe thunderstorm on May 17, 2005.
 

    Bangladeshi picking up hail stones on April 25, 2005. This picture appeared in the "Daily Sangram".

                                         Tornado hits northern Bangladesh killing 65

    A tornado killed at least 65 people in northern Bangladesh on Sunday March 20, 2005. This tornado hit Sadullahpur and Sudarganj
    upazilas of Gaibandha and Mithapukur upazila of Rangpur.  I am currently preparing a case study with surface and upper air charts.

    On March 18, before leaving town on a 2 day trip, I issued a slight risk for March 19 and the first moderate risk of the year
    for March 20. Unfortunately, I apparently overwrote this file by mistake since I cannot find the March 20 forecast showing the
    moderate risk.

    High winds and lightning killed 7 people in scattered locations across Bangladesh on March 30, 2005.

                     Thunderstorm winds and lightning kill 20
 

    Storms developed on March 23, 2005 in a tornado watch. At least 16 people were killed across Bangladesh. The deaths were
    scattered in nature and were the result of strong straight line winds and lightning. Lightning killed 4 people working in a field.
    An outflow boundary can be seen on the 06 UTC  Mar 23 surface map. Surface dewpoints south of this boundary were in the
    mid to upper 70s(24 to 25C) and surface based lifted indices ranged from -9 to -12 along and south of this boundary. Some of
    these deaths may have been from storms on March 22.

    A jet streak was approaching Bengal as seen from the UKMET 250mb initialization. The 500mb chart at 12 UTC March 23
    showed a shortwave trough over western India. I analyzed this map despite the very poor data quality over India, and the paucity
    of upstream data. The large view and small view  12UTC March 23 UKMET initialization 500mb maps are also available.

    8 people were killed by lightning in 4 separate cases in India over the past few days(March 19-23, 2005).
 

    A late evening thunderstorm on Marh 19, 2005 killed a couple on the western end of the Khasi Hills in the Meghalaya state of India.

    Morning(6am BST) soundings from Dhaka--good  job BMD(Bangladesh Meteorological Department). These are
    high quality soundings(especially the T/Td data)--a dramatic improvement from years past. These are from April 2004.

    14th15th16th17th

    A tornado hit in northern Bangladesh on April 14, 2004, killing 75 people.

    Click here for details about the tornado in far eastern Bangladesh on May 4, 2003.